Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi — Economic Impact Report
At the planning-basis FWDC, ACM deployment delivers a Circular Royalty™ of $120/ton from Year 2 — at zero City & County capital. The Exogenesis™ Royalty bonus, when available, adds an independent landfill remediation royalty stacking on the CSA.
FWDC ($103/ton): ESTIMATED — derived from ENV budget + volume data. WGSL-bound residual volume (~321,000 TPY): ESTIMATED. GASB 18 post-closure liability: NULL — not in public filings. Phase Initial CAPEX ($75M): Carbotura standard parameters.
§1 — Introduction and Decision Summary
§1.1 — What This Report Measures
This EIR models the delta between State A (current condition — feedstock to H-POWER and WGSL, with WGSL closing March 2, 2028) and State B (ACM deployment at 200 TPD Phase Initial, COD Q1 2028). Neither state is re-diagnosed in this report; data flows from the Waste Study and Proposal EIR Input Block respectively.
§1.2 — Decision Summary
Under the CSA the City & County pays the Beneficiation Fee and receives the Circular Royalty™. The Legacy Remediation Royalty ($50/ton from WGSL extraction, Exogenesis™ path) is a CSA add-on available where a qualifying legacy landfill is confirmed, described in Proposal §4.1. Both streams are reported as separate transactions per the Separate Transaction Principle (MR §4.8).
| Parameter | State A | State B |
|---|---|---|
| Annual community cost (feedstock disposition) | ~$7.52M/yr (200 TPD × $103/ton) EST | $7.30M/yr Beneficiation Fee Y1 MOD |
| Circular Royalty™ received | $0 | $0 Year 1 / $8.76M/yr Year 2 / $21.57M/yr Year 30 MOD |
| Circular Royalty™ Year 2 | Escalating cost | +$1.28M/yr (gross royalty; Fee reported separately) MOD |
| Capital obligation | Future Makaiwa Hills: $150–$300M est. DATA GAP | $0 — Carbotura BOO |
| GASB 18 post-closure liability | Outstanding — NULL DATA GAP | Extinguished at CSA execution (Exogenesis™ Royalty elected) |
| WGSL closure compliance | NO — no contracted alternative as of May 2026 | YES — Phase Initial COD Q1 2028 |
| ACM manufacturing classification | N/A | Required — RPT §1.4 |
| Decision deadline | Mid-2026 (T0 for Phase Initial COD Q1 2028) | |
| Cost of delay (6-month slip) | ~$16M off-island shipping exposure |
Year 1 / Year 2+ separation: Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) obligation and Circular Royalty™ receipt are independent transactions shown as separate rows in all tables. They are never netted, offset, or combined. ACM permitted only under manufacturing NAICS 325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, 331492. Solid waste codes (562212 / 562213 / 562219 / 562920) are expressly excluded. Both parties commit to the RPT pathway; the endpoint is categorical — manufacturing classification across all permitting, licensing, and regulatory contexts. Interim bridging authorities may apply during the transition.
§2 — State A Baseline
Source: Waste Study. All values from locked Registry. No new diagnosis in this section.
| Parameter | State A Value | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Total MSW generated (Oʻahu, 2019) | ~1,197,127 TPY | VER |
| H-POWER intake (2019) | ~544,311 TPY | VER |
| WGSL-bound MSW residual | ~321,000 TPY (~880 TPD) | EST |
| H-POWER ash deposited at WGSL | ~165,000 TPY | VER |
| H-POWER tipping fee (gate rate) | $91/ton | VER |
| Full system FWDC (planning basis) | ~$103/ton | EST |
| State A annual disposal cost (200 TPD basis) | ~$7.52M/yr (200 TPD × $103 × 365) | EST |
| State A cost escalation mechanism | H-POWER contract escalator ~2.5%/yr; LUC pressure; Makaiwa Hills capital unquantified | EST |
| WGSL closure date (hard constraint) | March 2, 2028 | VER |
| Current contracted alternative to WGSL | None — structural data gap | DATA GAP |
§3 — State B Deployment Baseline
Source: Proposal EIR Input Block. All values traced to Proposal body. No independent derivation in this section.
FWDC: ESTIMATED. WGSL residual volume: ESTIMATED. GASB 18 liability: NULL (data gap). All royalty and fee figures: MODELED from standard parameters. Phase Initial COD: ESTIMATED.
| Economic Term | Value | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) Year 1 | $100/ton (floor) → $7,300,000/yr Phase Initial | MOD |
| Beneficiation Fee escalator | +2.5%/yr | STD |
| Circular Royalty™ base rate | 120% of that year's Beneficiation Fee = $120/ton Year 2 | MOD |
| Circular Royalty™ Year 30 | $295.44/ton → $21,567,120/yr Phase Initial | MOD |
| Payment lag | 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payment, rolling monthly | STD |
| Exogenesis™ Royalty (if elected) | $50/ton Year 2, +1%/yr compound — subject to Waste Characterization Study confirmation | STD |
| Phase Initial CAPEX | $75M (Carbotura-financed; zero community capital) | STD |
| 18-month Parent Performance Guarantee | Carbotura on all City-facing payment obligations | STD |
| CSA term | 30 years minimum; perpetual continuation | STD |
§3.6 — Phase Delta Map
State A infrastructure (steel/grey pins): existing feedstock system. State B (Emerald square): Priority 1 ACM candidate site. Right panel shows the transformation from State A to State B.
200 TPD Phase Initial · COD Q1 2028
§4 — Delta Analysis
Three delta components: (1) gross cost displacement; (2) Circular Royalty™ cash flow; (3) residual obligation. All shown as independent transactions per MR §4.8 — never netted.
| Year | Avoided Disposal/ton (Gross Cost Disp.) | Ben. Fee/ton → | Annual Fee (200 TPD) | Royalty/ton ← | Annual Royalty (200 TPD) | Community Capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ~$103 EST | $100.00 | $7,300,000 | $0 (pre-royalty) | $0 | $0 |
| 2 | ~$105 | $102.50 | $7,482,500 | $120.00 | $8,760,000 | $0 |
| 5 | ~$113 | $110.38 | $8,057,750 | $132.46 | $9,911,210 | $0 |
| 10 | ~$127 | $124.89 | $9,116,700 | $155.96 | $11,385,080 | $0 |
| 20 | ~$162 | $159.87 | $11,670,150 | $215.24 | $15,712,520 | $0 |
| 30 | ~$207 | $204.64 | $14,938,770 | $295.44 | $21,567,120 | $0 |
Royalty figures are amounts received. The royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so the figure shown for a year is earned on the previous year’s delivered tonnage.
All figures MODELED at 200 TPD / 73,000 TPY Phase Initial. Beneficiation Fee and Circular Royalty™ are independent transactions — never netted.
Year 1 and post-Month 13 periods have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined. In Year 1: the City pays the Beneficiation Fee ($100/ton) and receives zero Circular Royalty™ — pre-royalty period. Post-Month 13: Circular Royalty™ payments begin at $120/ton. Both are independent transactions — the Circular Royalty™ exceeds the Beneficiation Fee by $17.50/ton in Year 2, with that spread compounding annually through Year 30.
§4.4 — 30-Year Gross Cost Displacement
| Period | Avoided Disposal Cost / Ton | Annual Gross Cost Displacement (200 TPD) | Cumulative (200 TPD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | ~$103 EST | ~$7,519,000 | ~$7,519,000 |
| Year 2 | ~$105 | ~$7,672,000 | ~$15,191,000 |
| Year 10 | ~$127 | ~$9,318,000 | ~$86,000,000 |
| Year 20 | ~$162 | ~$11,920,000 | ~$194,000,000 |
| Year 30 | ~$207 | ~$15,227,000 | ~$324,000,000 |
All ESTIMATED. Gross cost displacement = avoided WGSL disposal cost at FWDC ~$103/ton escalating 2.5%/yr. Shown independent of Beneficiation Fee — separate transaction per MR §4.8.
§4.5 — 30-Year Circular Royalty™
§5 — System-Level Impact
| Impact | State A | State B (Phase Initial) | State B (Phase Expanded) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct employment | Not applicable | ~50 FTE MOD | ~200 FTE |
| Regional economic impact | Not applicable | ~$16M/yr MOD | ~$64M/yr |
| Carbon impact (tCO₂e/day) | Landfill methane + H-POWER emissions | −761 to −783 t/day MOD | −1,522 to −1,566 t/day |
| PFAS structural delta | PFAS buried at WGSL; growing liability | Complete elemental dissociation at 1,200°C+ (designed for) | Same |
| Landfill odour / discharge | Active landfill discharges | Near-zero atmospheric discharge — enclosed facility | Same |
Regional economic effects are not county fiscal receipts. Environmental figures use “designed for” qualifying language per MR §1.3.
§5.4 — No-Fallback Analysis: State A has no contracted alternative to WGSL at the March 2, 2028 regulatory closure date. Off-island shipping ($99/ton, COVID-period verified) is the only backstop — volume-limited, not scalable to 880 TPD as a permanent solution. Makaiwa Hills (identified December 2024) requires Act 73 amendment, EIS, acquisition, and construction — minimum 4–6 years from authorization, not resolvable by 2028. State A does not have a self-resolving pathway to March 2028 compliance.
§6 — Risk and Sensitivity
| Risk | Key Driver | Who Bears | Mitigation | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC verification | $103/ton estimated | Shared | CFS pins to City budget actuals | Low — floor $100 applies |
| FWDC sign-change threshold | Fee exceeds royalty if FWDC > $155/ton (floor $100 still applies; royalty escalates) | N/A | At $103 FWDC the fee is at floor; escalating royalty overtakes fee by Year 2 regardless | N/A |
| Technology performance | RC3 baseline | Carbotura | BOO + Parent Performance Guarantee | Low for City |
| Timeline slippage (T0 delays) | T0 > mid-2026 → COD slips past March 2028 | Both | T0 by mid-2026 | High if T0 delayed |
| Feedstock variability ±20% | WGSL residual volume deviation | City (delivery obligation) | Phase Initial 200 TPD = ~22% of available WGSL-bound volume; slack > 4x | Low |
| Output market risk | Synthetic graphite, graphene, mineral markets | Carbotura | Royalty paid from operating revenues; City income independent of output pricing | Low for City |
| Royalty escalator sensitivity (0 / +1 / +2pp) | Multiplier escalation rate changes | Carbotura | At 0pp: royalty still covers fee from Year 2 at floor values | Low for City |
| PFAS regulatory tightening | EPA PFAS CERCLA WGSL liability | City (State A) / Carbotura (State B) | Exogenesis™ election extinguishes WGSL PFAS liability at CSA execution | Medium State A; Low State B |
§7 — Decision Window Analysis
The specific instrument creating irreversibility is the LUC Decision & Order (D&O, November 1, 2019; SUP SP09-4031): WGSL “shall not accept any form of waste after March 2, 2028.” This is an enforceable court order. Authorization of the Joint Working Group phase by mid-2026 preserves the Phase Initial COD Q1 2028 pathway. Authorization delayed to Q4 2026 shifts COD to Q3–Q4 2028 — creating an uncovered gap of 3–6 months at the LUC-mandated closure date.
| Decision | T0 by Mid-2026 | T0 by Q3 2026 | T0 by Q4 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial COD | Q1 2028 (pre-closure) | Q2 2028 (marginal) | Q3–Q4 2028 (post-closure gap) |
| WGSL coverage gap | None | ~60 days marginal | 3–6 months uncovered |
| Off-island shipping exposure | $0 | ~$5M | ~$12–$16M |
| First royalty payment | ~April 2029 | ~July 2029 | ~October 2029+ |
§8 — Effects Summary
All values traced to preceding sections. No new figures introduced.
§8.1 — Fiscal Effects
| Period | Transaction | $/ton | Annual (Phase Initial) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Beneficiation Fee paid | $100.00 | $7,300,000 |
| Year 1 | Circular Royalty™ received (pre-royalty) | $0 | $0 |
| Year 2 | Beneficiation Fee paid | $102.50 | $7,482,500 |
| Year 2 | Circular Royalty™ received | $120.00 | $8,760,000 |
| Year 30 | Beneficiation Fee paid | $204.64 | $14,938,770 |
| Year 30 | Circular Royalty™ received | $295.44 | $21,567,120 |
Beneficiation Fee, Circular Royalty™, and Exogenesis™ Royalty are independent transactions shown gross. Royalty payments begin 13 months after corresponding fee or extraction events. All ESTIMATED.
§8.2 — Regional Economic Effects
These are regional economic effects — not county fiscal receipts. They are not combinable with Beneficiation Fee obligations or Circular Royalty™ receipts under the Separate Transaction Principle.
| Effect | Phase Initial | Phase Expanded |
|---|---|---|
| Direct employment (FTE) | ~50 MOD | ~200 |
| Annual regional economic impact | ~$16M/yr MOD | ~$64M/yr |
| Carbon impact (tCO₂e/day) | −761 to −783 | −1,522 to −1,566 |
§8.5 — Unresolved Data Gaps
| Data Gap | Impact on Analysis | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| GASB 18 post-closure liability (WGSL) | Material for/Exogenesis™ balance sheet quantification | City & County CAFR or ENV budget request |
| Makaiwa Hills capital cost | State A full-system cost trajectory incomplete | ENV EIS process (4–6 year timeline) |
| Reworld™ contract renewal terms | CONDITIONAL stream timing (H-POWER ash redirect) | City ENV / Reworld™ contract review |
| WGSL extractable mass (Exogenesis™ WCS) | Exogenesis™ Royalty activation pending | Waste Characterization Study |
FWDC derivation: City & County ENV budget + volume data (ENV Rates and Data 2023, ENV Landfill Siting Status April 2026). Beneficiation Fee formula: Carbotura CSA v2026.7 §4.1. Royalty formula: Carbotura CSA v2026.7 §4.3, §4.13. Phase sizing: Carbotura standard parameters ($75M first increment + $57.5M per additional). Environmental performance: MR §8 (400 TPD baseline, scaled). Employment: regional input-output model (MR §8). Timeline: COD Q1 2028 back-calculated from T0 mid-2026. All financial projections: RC3 conservative baseline.